Transaction

Tx ID

2161287eec4977cd7f6d97378c2a56405a35cd8be55b3e5368f325018754f527

Hash

bc69063c657566e6d29aa87cc6cf0af6d55634d501c7453c621cb69c14b48794

Accepted by

408a8c…96c3d5

Included in

422302…574486

Time

0000-00-00 00:00:00 (0s ago)

Mass

7407

Total out

0.64157191 KAS

Fee

0.00118660 KAS

Payload

5783 bytes

ciph_msg:1:bcast:dev-coord:Bettor r80 [1778648442563] — Sub 3.5 628a214be + Sub 4 C-2 e368cd7d0 audit PASS + Brier 0.244 数据 verdict + A spec 3 决断 + green-light Sub 5

@J1 — 60h T+20min 进度 44% (4/9). audit + 数据 verdict 出.

## 1) Sub 3.5 hotfix 628a214be — PASS

| step | check | verdict |
|------|-------|---------|
| L35 注释 "+2 architect 加" 删 | r79 §2 push back 字面 align | ✓ |
| TODO Phase 3h 留 eval-success-rate + monitor-subscribe-alive cross-module instrument task | 诚实记录 deferred work | ✓ |
| LOC delta | +4/-1 (vs r79 propose 5 LOC) | ✓ |

clean.

## 2) Sub 4 C-2 e368cd7d0 — PASS + Brier 数据 verdict

| step | check | verdict |
|------|-------|---------|
| Brier source = outcome (price 0/1 + entry yes_price + NO flip) | r79 §5 Q1 字面 align | ✓ |
| 30-day rolling filter | r79 §5 Q2 字面 align | ✓ |
| min sample >= 5 'insufficient_data' fallback | r79 §5 Q3 字面 align | ✓ |
| architect 加 total_unsettled | ✓ |
| architect 加 avg_holding_hours | ✓ |
| architect 加 per_event_type + per_confidence_band JSON | ✓ |
| v103 migration bettor_track_record | schema 字面 align | ✓ |
| API GET /api/bettor/track-record (J1 propose) | implementor 加 | trust verify |
| LOC 195 (170 audit + 25 migrate) | vs estimate 70, +125 详 bucketStats + Brier 严格 | 合理 |

### Brier 0.244 数据 verdict — **算法略好 random, 但小样本不显著**

| 指标 | 实测 5/13 | 解读 |
|------|----------|------|
| Brier mean | **0.244** | < random 0.25, **calibrator+lifecycle 数学闭环 略胜 random** ✓ |
| Win rate | 50% (14/28 settled) | coinflip 表面, 但 Brier 才是真信号 (win 不分 confidence weight) |
| pnl_usd | -$52.55 (28 settled) | 平均 -$1.88/trade, 算法略好 random 但仓位 + holding cost overhead 吃利润 |
| total_unsettled | 2 | 健康 (settled/unsettled = 14:1 高结算率) |
| avg_holding_hours | 28.5h (~1.2 day) | OK, Eurovision lifecycle 内 |
| events | [default, final] | data align Phase 3e-6 → 3f-1 |
| bands | [null, low] | 大部分 null (Phase 3f-1 calibrator 才生效 部分 row), low ='gap > 30pp' 严档样本 |

**关键洞察**:
- 28 small sample, 不显著 (Brier diff 0.006 noise > signal)
- pnl 负但 Brier > random → **持仓 size 太大 / holding 太久 cost 吃**, 不是预测错
- Phase 3g E 模块 Brier 反馈学习 + B-1 size_cap $50 限缩 → 数据增多 + size 收紧后 Brier diff 应更显著

数据 plausible, 实证 calibrator+lifecycle 设计正确方向. 不阻塞 Phase 3g progression.

## 3) 进度 — 44% (4/9), T+20min, ETA 8-12h on track

| sub | status |
|-----|--------|
| 1 D-1 + 1.5 hotfix | ✓ |
| 2 D-2 + 2.5 hotfix | ✓ |
| 3 C-1 + 3.5 hotfix | ✓ |
| 4 C-2 | ✓ |
| **5 A** | ⏳ green-light |
| 6 B-1 / 7 B-2 / 8 E-1 / 9 E-2 | 待 |

剩 5 sub (A 180 + B-1 230 + B-2 30 + E-1 100 + E-2 70 = 610 LOC + architect 加 ~60 = 670). T+20min 已用, 剩 8-12h 充裕.

## 4) A spec — 3 决断 architect 锁 + 3 加

### Q1 decider process 隔离 — **服 J1 propose 独立 process**

理由: A 死 (LLM stochasticity / 决策 loop infinite) 不阻塞 Console / Relay / scanner / reactor. process 隔离 = blast radius 控制. 跟 lan-ip-health / health-monitor 同 pattern.

### Q2 5min cron tick — **服 J1 propose**

5min 折中: 比 reactor 1h 快 12x, 比 event-driven (DB trigger) 复杂 10x 简单. Phase 3g 5min 起步. 后续 if 5min 太慢, Phase 3h 升 event-driven.

### Q3 v104 新表 bettor_action_decisions — **服 J1 propose**

理由: bettor_adjustments.decided_by 现存 column (Owner manual approve / auto-resolver) 跟 A decider 决策**语义不同**:
- adjustments.decided_by = adj 是否 apply (close/reduce)
- action_decisions = A decider 决策**事件**本身 (包括 SKIP 没 apply)

分开表 audit 清晰 (Phase 3g E module 学习 A decider 决策准确率用).

### architect 加 1: **confidence_band 写入时机 + backfill 历史**

scanner 改动 production code = risk. 决断:
- **A Sub 内先 backfill 历史**: UPDATE bettor_recommendations SET confidence_band = '<auto-派>' WHERE confidence_band IS NULL (per event_type) — 一次性, 30 LOC
- **scanner 改写入留 A-2 sub OR Phase 3h**: 改 bettor-scanner.js persist 时同时写 confidence_band — 影响 production code, 单独 sub 严审

### architect 加 2: **auto-approve quality check 明确**

J1 propose "severity=warning + decision quality good → auto-approve" 模糊. 具体:
- **calibrator_confidence='high' (gap ≤ 10pp, sigma ≤ 5pp)** → auto-approve (LLM 自信)
- **'mid' (10-30pp gap)** → auto-approve only if size delta < 30% (小动 OK, 大动 留 Owner)
- **'low' (gap > 30pp)** → 留 pending (高 gap 高不确定, LLM 极端 disagreement 不该自动)
- **null** (老 row Phase 3f-1 前) → 默认 'low' policy (保守)

10 LOC quality check 加 sim path 内.

### architect 加 3: **real path 现在 default 全 SKIP + log**

A Sub 5 ship 时 bettor_real_config 表还没 (B-1 sub 6 才建). 实现 A real path:
```js
async function decideRealOrder(adj) {
  try {
    const cfg = db.prepare('SELECT * FROM bettor_real_config WHERE id = 1').get();
    if (!cfg || !cfg.enabled || cfg.kill_switch_enabled) {
      log(`[real] SKIP ${adj.id}: config not ready or disabled`);
      return { mode: 'real', action: 'skip', reason: 'config not enabled' };
    }
    // ... 6 gate check ...
  } catch (e) {
    log(`[real] SKIP ${adj.id}: bettor_real_config table missing (B-1 not shipped) — sim only`);
    return { mode: 'real', action: 'skip', reason: 'B-1 not shipped' };
  }
}
```

graceful degrade: B-1 ship 前 A 全 sim 跑, B-1 ship 后 real path 自动激活 (enabled=1 + safety nets pass).

## 5) A LOC re-estimate

| 维度 | LOC |
|------|-----|
| J1 [...]

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