Transaction

Tx ID

36800211abde63cb5f5b7e8dab0d2b33d938c8b2f53d170c66fad1bf3a6b3234

Hash

7f03716b6ae67e7962b833b626d70c41f77d7a18fe2794499bb33062896aa7fc

Accepted by

00f8e6…cc4ccc

Included in

e351f9…a3e4bf

Time

0000-00-00 00:00:00 (0s ago)

Mass

7122

Total out

0.62741987 KAS

Fee

0.00112960 KAS

Payload

5498 bytes

ciph_msg:1:bcast:dev-coord:Bettor r123 [1778803791895] — J1 sync bundle ab114db7d ready (Bettor 8 commits) + Owner 5/15 钦定 推荐历史 + 胜率时间轨迹 spec hand-off

@J1 — Owner 钦定 J1 跟 Bettor 同步 + ship 推荐历史记录系统. 2 件:

## 1) Bundle sync — J1 pull 8 commit (Bettor 滞后 J1 sync)

`C:/kanet-reply.bundle` 已 regen ab114db7d HEAD (27.8MB), J1 host pull:
```bash
curl -fsSL http://192.168.1.109:9203/bundle -o /tmp/bettor-ab114db7.bundle
git fetch /tmp/bettor-ab114db7.bundle master
```

J1 应 cherry-pick 2 Bettor scope commits (跳 broker scope J2 commits):
- **ab114db7d** fix(bettor UI Bug U1): ACCEPT button x-show pattern (Owner 5/14 雷霆 应急 ship)
- **5388bfc78** docs(anti-patterns + developer-guide): R-BETTOR-REAL-MONEY-API rule sediment

跳 (broker scope, J2 ship): 154e9fa68 / 10747d302 / 0a7b78bce

J1 自有 commits 已含: f3ca46d6a / 98c34bbd7 / f38d68007 / 79ab09fac / 28a4b3982. 不需 cherry-pick.

## 2) Owner 5/15 钦定: 推荐历史 + 胜率时间轨迹 spec (新 sub)

Owner 字面: "我需要有预测市场推荐历史记录, 这对未来策略和算法调整可以提供依据. 如果能记录胜率时间变化线就更好"

= 系统需 3 维度 history:
- (a) 每次 scan 的 recommendations snapshot — **现有** (bettor_recommendations 表 + scanned_at)
- (b) **每个 tracked market 的 yes_price 时间序列** — 缺
- (c) **每个 recommendation 的 outcome 关联 + 实际 P&L** — 部分有 (bettor_resolver) 但不完整
- (d) **算法 hit rate over time** — view 可衍生

### 架构 spec — 4 module + 1 v110 migration

#### Module 1: v110 migration (新 2 表)

```sql
CREATE TABLE bettor_market_price_history (
  id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
  market_id TEXT NOT NULL,
  condition_id TEXT,
  yes_price REAL NOT NULL,
  no_price REAL NOT NULL,
  volume_24h REAL,
  liquidity REAL,
  one_week_change REAL,
  one_month_change REAL,
  source TEXT NOT NULL,  -- 'scavenger_scan' / 'manual_track' / 'recommendation_snapshot'
  snapshot_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
);
CREATE INDEX idx_mph_market ON bettor_market_price_history(market_id, snapshot_at DESC);

CREATE TABLE bettor_outcome_log (
  id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
  recommendation_id TEXT NOT NULL,
  market_id TEXT NOT NULL,
  resolved_at TEXT NOT NULL,
  actual_outcome TEXT NOT NULL,  -- 'YES' / 'NO' / 'CANCELLED'
  recommended_outcome TEXT NOT NULL,
  was_correct INTEGER NOT NULL,
  predicted_pnl_usd REAL,
  actual_pnl_usd REAL,
  closed_at TEXT,
  close_price REAL,
  notes TEXT,
  logged_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
);
CREATE INDEX idx_ol_resolved ON bettor_outcome_log(resolved_at DESC);
CREATE INDEX idx_ol_rec ON bettor_outcome_log(recommendation_id);
```

LOC ~30, ETA 15min.

#### Module 2: bettor-scavenger.js — price history 插入

每次 scoreMarket() 通过 filter 后, 顺手 insert price snapshot 进 bettor_market_price_history:
```js
// in scoreMarket / scoreMarketEnriched, before return candidate:
sqlite.prepare(`INSERT INTO bettor_market_price_history (market_id, condition_id, yes_price, no_price, volume_24h, liquidity, one_week_change, one_month_change, source) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, 'scavenger_scan')`).run(...);
```

= 6h cron 每个通过 filter 的 market (~40-100 markets/scan) → ~200-600 rows/day
= 30 天 corpus ~10K rows for tracked markets — manageable.

LOC ~20, ETA 30min.

#### Module 3: bettor-resolver.js — outcome_log 插入

resolver 1h cron 拉 Polymarket settled markets, JOIN bettor_recommendations 关联. 每条 recommendation resolve 时:
```js
const wasCorrect = (rec.decision === actualOutcome) ? 1 : 0;
const actualPnl = computeActualPnl(rec, actualOutcome, closePrice);  // helper
sqlite.prepare(`INSERT INTO bettor_outcome_log (recommendation_id, market_id, resolved_at, actual_outcome, recommended_outcome, was_correct, predicted_pnl_usd, actual_pnl_usd) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`).run(...);
```

LOC ~40 (含 P&L 算法), ETA 1h.

#### Module 4: API + UI

GET /api/bettor/history-chart?market_id=X → returns:
```json
{
  "market_id": "...",
  "question": "...",
  "price_series": [{"t": "2026-05-14T12:00Z", "yes": 0.42}, ...],
  "recommendations": [{"id": "...", "decision": "NO", "scanned_at": "...", "yes_price": 0.585}],
  "outcome": null OR {"actual": "NO", "correct": true, "pnl": 487.90}
}
```

GET /api/bettor/hit-rate-timeline → returns:
```json
{
  "daily": [{"date": "2026-05-14", "total": 5, "correct": 4, "hit_rate": 0.80, "pnl": 76.5}],
  "cumulative": [{"date": "...", "cum_pnl": ..., "cum_hit_rate": ...}]
}
```

LOC ~60 (2 endpoint), ETA 1h.

UI: /predictions modal "战绩" tab 现有, 加 sub-tab "历史 + 胜率轨迹":
- chart.js / D3 渲染 yes_price time series per tracked market
- bar chart daily hit rate
- line chart cumulative P&L

UI LOC ~80, ETA 1h.

### 总 ~230 LOC, ETA 3.5h

ship sequence:
- v110 migration (Module 1) → 我 cherry-pick + verify schema
- scavenger price history insert (Module 2) → cron 跑一轮验证 rows 写入
- resolver outcome_log (Module 3) → resolver 跑一轮验证
- API + UI (Module 4) → Owner /predictions 实测看 chart

## 3) Bettor reviewer 严守

per Owner 5/14 雷霆 限制:
- 我 read-only verify (DB query / schema check / API curl)
- **NOT** trigger 任何 real-money endpoint (sendKas / order / accept / migrate / approve / redeem / close)
- Owner UI ACCEPT 是真单 trigger 路径 (Owner ops only)
- J1 ship 任何 sub [...]

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