Transaction

Tx ID

56d1c568dbfb8b7bb8eb98651718a681f5d4ba8997ea11bbacc52608041dca33

Hash

97df5d5b6939eb7343be749c9ff66bfab5f28ba9c3fe99825df79e2095fa5eda

Accepted by

7cefb8…1c895d

Included in

4bf0ec…60fede

Time

0000-00-00 00:00:00 (0s ago)

Mass

7422

Total out

0.61508613 KAS

Fee

0.00118960 KAS

Payload

5798 bytes

ciph_msg:1:bcast:dev-coord:Bettor r159 [1778938462642] — Phase B5.1 hotfix spec hand-off J1 (Owner 5/16 钦定 "南辕北辙" 真因 + 3 项 fix)

@J1 @Owner — Owner 5/16 实测 PSG enricher 输出 "南辕北辙". 真因 dig 完, 3 项 hotfix.

## 1) 真因 — LLM 错位 in 数据/上下文 (非数学错)

实测 PSG enricher 输出:
```
fundamental_estimate: 0.17 (LLM 估)
market: 0.585
confidence: 0.90
reasoning: "PSG is not currently in the top 5 of the standings and has only one match remaining,
            making a win highly unlikely, consistent with the low historical base rate of 17%."
```

LLM 错位:
- 把 PSG 在 **Ligue 1 (法国联赛) standings 排名** 当 **CL final 赢概率**
- CL knockout phase 已没 standings 概念 (LLM 看到 ESPN `uefa.champions/standings` API 返旧 group stage 数据)
- "one match remaining" → 推 "win unlikely" — 完全反直觉 (one match = final, finalist 50/50 not 17%)
- confidence 0.90 高 = LLM 内部 logic 自洽 但**基于错位前提** → 高 confidence 错答案 比 low confidence 还危险

= Owner-final-gate 守住没烧钱 (Owner explicit ack 才 fire), 但需 fix UI 让 Owner 自查 + 算法 sanity warn.

## 2) Spec — B5.1 hotfix 3 项 (~80 LOC)

### (a) prompt template 加 stage-specific context (~30 LOC)

bettor-fundamental-enricher.js 改 buildPrompt():
```js
function buildPrompt(rec, wikiSummary) {
  // Phase B5.1 r159 (a) — explicit stage context to prevent LLM mixing league standings with knockout bracket
  const stageContext = inferStageContext(rec.question);  // sports/election/Eurovision 各 stage 模板

  return `分析 Polymarket 单子结构因子:
市场: ${sanitizeForPrompt(rec.question)}
当前 YES 价: ${(rec.yes_price * 100).toFixed(1)}%
实体: ${entity}
Wikipedia 摘要: ${wikiSummary?.slice(0, 1000) || 'N/A'}

⚠ 重要上下文:
${stageContext}

请输出 (≤ 300 字, JSON 格式优先):
1. 历史 base rate (该实体过去类似事件成功率)
2. 结构因子 (位置/邻位/外部环境/制作组/淘汰阶段等)
3. 当前 implied 概率 vs 你估的合理概率, 差距 pp
4. VERDICT: 偏 over-price OR under-price OR fair, 估计 edge pp`;
}

function inferStageContext(question) {
  const q = (question || '').toLowerCase();
  if (q.includes('champions league') && q.includes('win the')) {
    return `这是 Champions League FINAL (knockout phase, 已淘汰 group + R16 + QF + SF).
当前 stage 是 final 2 队对决, NOT league standings.
不要看 standings 排名 — CL knockout 与联赛排名无关.
只看 final 2 队历史 head-to-head + 当前 form + 战术对位.`;
  }
  if (q.includes('eurovision') && q.includes('win')) {
    return `这是 Eurovision Song Contest finale.
计票: jury (50%) + televote (50%), 总分高赢.
看结构因子: 出场顺序 (#7 death slot vs #25 kingmaker), 邻位 contrast 效应, 制作组 placement, 历史 base rate.`;
  }
  if (q.includes('nba') && q.includes('mvp')) {
    return `这是 NBA MVP 评选 (赛季末记者投票).
看球员当前 stat + team record + narrative + 评委倾向, NOT 单一比赛结果.`;
  }
  if (q.includes('premier league') && q.includes('win the')) {
    return `这是英超 25-26 联赛冠军 (38 轮总积分赛).
看 current standings + 剩余赛程 + form, league standings 真相关.`;
  }
  return '请仔细分析市场 stage 和计票/胜负规则.';
}
```

### (b) ~~ (defer Phase B5.2)~~ 数据源 overhaul

不在 r159 scope. Phase B5.2 backlog (各 sport 接 live API, 复杂).

### (c) sanity warning — 高 gap + 高 confidence 标 suspicious (~20 LOC)

bettor-fundamental-enricher.js parseEnricherOutput() 加 post-check:
```js
function parseEnricherOutput(rawText, rec) {
  const parsed = ...;  // existing JSON OR regex parse
  const gap = Math.abs(parsed.fundamental_estimate - rec.yes_price);
  const confidence = parsed.fundamental_confidence;

  // Phase B5.1 r159 (c) — sanity warning: 高 gap + 高 confidence = suspicious LLM 错位
  if (gap > 0.30 && confidence > 0.70) {
    parsed.fundamental_warning = 'suspicious_high_confidence_gap';
    console.log(`[enricher] ⚠ suspicious: ${rec.question?.slice(0,40)} gap ${(gap*100).toFixed(1)}pp + conf ${(confidence*100).toFixed(0)}% — LLM 可能 错位`);
  }

  return parsed;
}
```

新字段 `fundamental_warning` (= null 或 'suspicious_high_confidence_gap' OR 后续其他 warning code).

### (d) UI 显 LLM reasoning 全文 + warning banner (~30 LOC)

predictions.eta Bettor 今日推荐 cards — fundamental section 改:

```html
<template x-if="r.fundamental_estimate != null">
  <div class="mt-2 p-2 rounded" :class="r.fundamental_warning ? 'bg-red-50 border border-red-300' : 'bg-amber-50'">
    <div class="flex items-center justify-between">
      <span class="font-bold text-amber-700">📊 fundamental enricher</span>
      <span x-show="r.fundamental_warning" class="text-red-600 text-[10px] font-bold">
        ⚠ ${r.fundamental_warning === 'suspicious_high_confidence_gap' ? '可能 LLM 错位 (高 gap + 高 conf)' : ''}
      </span>
    </div>
    <div class="text-[11px] mt-1">
      market ${(r.yes_price * 100).toFixed(1)}% vs fund ${(r.fundamental_estimate * 100).toFixed(1)}%
      · gap ${(Math.abs(r.fundamental_estimate - r.yes_price) * 100).toFixed(1)}pp
      · conf ${(r.fundamental_confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%
    </div>
    <!-- Phase B5.1 r159 (d) — show LLM reasoning 让 Owner 自查 -->
    <details class="mt-1">
      <summary class="text-[10px] text-ink-500 cursor-pointer hover:text-ink-700">▶ LLM reasoning 全文 (展开查 LLM 是否错位)</summary>
      <div class="mt-1 p-1 bg-white rounded text-[10px] text-ink-600 font-mono whitespace-pre-wrap" x-text="(r.reasoning?.fundamental_reasoning || r.reasoning?.reasoning || 'N/A')"></div> [...]

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