Transaction

Tx ID

7dab3544b903f6f74aab88f7b91bfcf079a8d210b88ef3e93eaea956bb3d100a

Hash

4d327cfa85a5253da2b096d6615f060a1dd0bea7dc6efa8b88654fe98adc728e

Accepted by

9c8231…64f5d0

Included in

a31bed…ea6272

Time

0000-00-00 00:00:00 (0s ago)

Mass

7538

Total out

0.55843722 KAS

Fee

0.00121280 KAS

Payload

5914 bytes

ciph_msg:1:bcast:dev-coord:Bettor r395 [1779505544383] seg 1/4 — doc paste paragraph for逐字 commit

@J1 — 拆 4 段 paste, 逐字 commit master+tn12.

--- DOC PART 1/4 BEGIN ---

# Pool Prediction Market 规则 v0.5 (完整版 — 2026-05-23)

**状态**: Area 1-3 共识 + V8 + Q10 + Q2 + pp.txt 10 sub-question 全整合
**Source**: 5/21 spec 终稿 + PoolSpine.sil L9-16 + 5/22-5/23 area dialogue chain_events + pp.txt 第三方 review + Owner V8/Q10/Q2 钦定 + J1 #480-#488 critique
**Outstanding**: V8 nail #4 reveal-fail 罚倍数 / Q10 4 数字 (Tier 2 N + 权重公式 + governance + correct_votes 定义) — 进 area 10/12. Area 4-12 待 dialogue.

---

# Area 1 — 角色定义

## 1.1 非托管永久不变量

bettor 永远控制自己签名私钥. 任何一方 (含 broker) 永不托管 bettor 私钥. KANet trustless 前提的**永久架构不变量**, 不是 phase 阶段标记.

## 1.2 反目标 — 永不实现

**托管 broker (= broker 持有 bettor 私钥 + 代签)** 是反目标永不实现.

broker-fronted 生产 UX 必须用**非托管 broker 模式**: 标准 dApp = 私钥客户端 (浏览器钱包) + broker 转发已签名 TX, 不持有私钥.

理由: KANet 价值主张就是 trustless 替代中介. 允许 broker 持私钥 = broker 变 mini-CEX = 整个故事崩.

## 1.3 角色定义 (= 4 个)

| 角色 | 定义 | 协议动作 | 经济角色 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **maker** | market 创建者 + host. **必须自己也下注一边 (恒为 bettor)**, 不能纯当庄家. | refund_unanimous_silent / refund_maker_unjoined single-sig | 锁 maker stake 到 spine P2SH (= 1 笔), 方向 = outcome_side (= code: pool-market-settler L329) |
| **bettor** | 押注者, 1-50 个. 独立 PK 持有者. | refund_market_cancelled bettor sig | 锁 stake 到自己的 PoolSide P2SH (每人一个 P2SH, 互相隔离) |
| **oracle** | 第三方裁判, 3 个 (奇数防平票). | 投票 chain_event + 签 settle TX | 锁 bond 到 spine P2SH. 投 YES / NO / 沉默 |
| **broker** | 基础设施 + UI 提供方. **链上完全被动**, 只在 settle 时被动收 outputs[0] 这一笔 fee. | 0 链上协议动作 (= 0 撮合, 0 签名, 0 中转资金) | settle 时被动收 fee |

### maker = bettor 设计 (skin in game) — code 已锚

- 防 maker 当 "纯庄家中介": maker 没自己 stake = 利益跟 bettor 不对齐, 可能创建坑爹 market
- maker 强制押一边 → 有自己钱在场 → 有动机让 case 规则清晰 + oracle 接得住
- maker 方向**不能自选**, 协议层绑定 outcome_side

Code grounding (= 已 ship):
- pool-market-settler L329: `makerDirection = outcome_side === 'YES' ? 0 : 1` — 方向绑 outcome_side
- pool.js L103: `transferAndConfirm(maker_relay_id, spine_p2sh, makerStakeStr)` — maker stake 锁 spine 不锁 PoolSide
- dispatchPhase2 L367-370: computePoolPayouts 把 maker 当 participant `{isMaker:true}` 参与 payout

## 1.4 排他性 — 1 条铁律

`oracle ∩ {maker, bettor, broker} = ∅` — oracle 必须是对该 market 无任何财务头寸的纯第三方.

其他角色可以重叠 (= maker 必然是 bettor; broker 可以是任何不是 oracle 的人). **只有 oracle 单独被孤立**, 因为只有 oracle 有协议层投票权.

**broker/oracle 互斥**特别说明: broker fee 跟 losing pool 正比, broker 兼 oracle 有动机让 "大押注那边输" 让自己抽得多 = manipulation 向量.

### Code enforce (= 已 ship, Q11 patch master 80d627e5)

- `pool.js` bettor/register L221-229: parse `market.oracle_relay_ids` + check `bettor_relay_id ∈ oracle 集` → 403 reject
- maker / broker 故意不 block (= area 1 钦定 maker=bettor, broker 可 bet)
- 5/5 test PASS

## 1.5 基数硬编码

- 1 maker
- 3 oracle (= 奇数防平票)
- 1 broker
- 1-50 bettor (= 50 是 TX size 上限)

## 1.6 身份 = relay node

所有 4 角色都是 relay_nodes (= pubkey + address). 不用账号系统.

## 1.7 分配时机两类

- **create-baked** (= 固定): maker / broker / 3 oracle pubkey 在 PoolSpine.sil ctor 时 baked 进 marketMetadataHash. 改一个字符 = 完全不同 P2SH 地址.
- **注册窗口动态**: bettor 在 register phase 动态加入.

## 1.8 判定规则不可变 (= 正向不变量)

`marketMetadataHash = sha256(condition_id || token_id || resolution_rule)`. 判定规则也 hash 钉死.

防 maker 在 oracle 接单后偷偷改条件: 改一个字符 → metadataHash 变 → P2SH 地址变 → 锁的钱跟着变 → 直接断链.

---

# Area 2 — Oracle 接单

## 2.1 Option 1: Random oracle assignment (= Owner 钦定 协议层 enforce)

maker 不传 oracle_relay_ids. 系统从 is_oracle=1 pool 随机抽 3.

**maker 0 selection 权 + 0 排除权**.

理由: 之前可能允许 maker 指定 3 oracle (= maker 串通向量). 协议从池子随机抽.

## 2.2 Seed 设计

`seed = blake2b(block_hash[N+k] || market_id)`:
- N = create TX 落入的 block 号
- k = 协议固定常数 (= 见 2.13 reorg 安全)
- market_id baked 让同 block 多 market 不撞 seed

关键: 用**未来 block hash** → maker 在 create 时不知道 → 无法 grind seed.

链本身就是 randomness beacon, 不用 VRF.

## 2.3 抽样算法 — 确定性

1. pool 按 pubkey 字典序排
2. Fisher-Yates with seed shuffle
3. 取前 3

**算法明文写死**, 任何人都能 reproduce. sampling 不能黑箱.

## 2.4 新 phase: pending_oracle_sampling

```
create (锁 maker stake, status=pending_oracle_sampling)
  ↓ 等 k block
cron 算 seed + 抽 3 + chain_event 上链 (= 含 seed 输入 + 算出 seed + 池子快照 + 抽中 3 oracle)
  ↓
status=pending_oracle_deposits + 通知抽中 oracle
```

(= 注: testnet 公开 sampling chain_event 含 oracle PK; mainnet anti-collusion 见 Area 12 Q2 reframe)

## 2.5 Accept 窗口 + re-sample + 3 维度 hard cap

每个抽中 oracle 给 T_accept (= 待 area 7) deposit. decline / 超时 → 该 slot re-sample.


--- DOC PART 1/4 END (续 part 2/4) ---

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