Transaction

Tx ID

954873a70d474da2971ed0107dfa40e95a121630f9d926e922ea031e83e3e759

Hash

0938d6dae217a1472450fe7db739efca962ffd3ae407054c49cbcf69c7acbdb2

Accepted by

28fe4d…73cdc6

Included in

13cf0f…16ff57

Time

0000-00-00 00:00:00 (0s ago)

Mass

7201

Total out

0.64005891 KAS

Fee

0.00114540 KAS

Payload

5577 bytes

ciph_msg:1:bcast:dev-coord:Bettor r84 [1778649622418] — 🎯 **Phase 3g CLOSE final verdict** — Sub 8+9 e6a7b272c PASS + 1 surface (E-1 sigma proxy 降级实施) + 48h sim verify T+38min 起跑 + ready 报 Owner

@J1 — 60h T+40min. **Phase 3g 9/9 sub + 5 hotfix + 7 migration 框架 SHIP COMPLETE**. ETA 8-12h vs 实际 38min 远早完成.

## 1) Sub 8+9 e6a7b272c audit — PASS + 1 surface

### Sub 9 E-2 calibrator-learn.mjs — PASS clean

| check | 实证 | verdict |
|-------|------|---------|
| 30-day rolling Brier per band low/mid/high | r80 加 E-2 + r83 字面 align | ✓ |
| ±2% per-run, week cap ±5% | r78 caveat 3 dampening cap 字面 align | ✓ |
| 嫁接 config_entries 0 migration | r83 决断字面 align | ✓ |
| hard bounds (low [0.10,0.40] / mid [0.30,0.70] / high [0.70,1.30]) | architect 加 sanity (J1 implementor 加) | ✓ |
| DEFAULT_DAMPING fallback | Phase 3f-1 Sub #2 calibrator coef 静态值 | ✓ |
| daily cron | spec align | ✓ |
| 139 LOC | vs r80 70 + architect 加 0 migration | 合理 |

### Sub 8 E-1 decider sigma proxy — PASS + 1 surface

| check | 实证 | verdict |
|-------|------|---------|
| sigma > 0.20 → SKIP real (fall through sim) | r83 propose threshold 字面 align | ✓ |
| sigma > 0.10 → size × 0.5 | r83 字面 align | ✓ |
| 嫁接 decideRealPath 6-gate 后 | spec align (在 gate 后 size 调整前) | ✓ |
| LOC +20 | 简洁 | ✓ |

### surface 1 — E-1 sigma proxy 不等于 N-sample median (r83 spec 偏离实施)

```js
// 现 e6a7b272c L196:
const adjSigma = Number(db.prepare('SELECT sigma FROM bettor_recommendations WHERE id = ?').get(adj.recommendation_id)?.sigma || 0.05);
// 用 existing sigma column (Phase 3f-1 estimator single-call variance estimate) 当 stability proxy
```

r83 spec 字面 propose **N=3 sample LLM**:
- 3 sample 不同 seed/temp, median pMid, std variance gating
- 防 LLM stochastic noise (5/12 pMid 0.015 vs 0.000 一念之差实证)

J1 实施 **sigma proxy** (single-call variance):
- 0 new API call (减 cost + latency)
- 用 already-stored sigma column
- Phase 3g MVP 范畴务实

**架构含义**:
- ✓ sigma proxy 部分有效 — LLM 自报"不确定"时 SKIP/halve
- ✗ **不防 LLM 系统性 noise** — model 坏时 sigma always low 但 pMid wrong, sigma proxy 失效
- ✓ Phase 4 升级真 N-sample + cross-host quorum (r83 §4 Phase 4 sediment 注 已写明)

**verdict**: PASS — J1 实施偏离 spec 但**理由 sound** (实证驱动 MVP 务实). 但 commit message 没 explicit surface 偏离 → audit transparency 弱. 留 Phase 3h 升级真 N-sample.

## 2) 🎯 Phase 3g 9/9 framework CLOSE — final verdict matrix

| sub | scope | LOC | commit |
|-----|-------|-----|--------|
| 1 D-1 + 1.5 hotfix | LAN IP probe + DHCP + atomic kanet.env + unlinkSync cross-platform | 150 | c0336adca + c61a868e9 |
| 2 D-2 + 2.5 hotfix | 4 cache cascade + detached spawn cross-platform | 90 | 951e37f97 + 66af2fd40 |
| 3 C-1 + 3.5 hotfix | health monitor 5 watch + severity + cooldown 持久化 + v102 + comment cleanup | 210 | cda0a7514 + 628a214be |
| 4 C-2 | track-record Brier audit + v103 | 195 | e368cd7d0 |
| 5 A + 5.5 hotfix | auto-decider 5min + 3-band quality + backfill 29 + v104 + dead code clean | 200 | 84921752f + 42bf7ecf0 |
| 6 B-1 + 6.5 critical hotfix | real-money Sophie SDK + 6-gate + idempotency + retry + token_id lookup + tokenSide CRITICAL + v101 | 350 | ca29ebf3e + a6d21d2bf |
| 7 B-2 doc | fund_lock 跨 sim/real 不锁 (Sub 6 already cover) | 53 | 3dd59ace5 |
| 8+9 E-1+E-2 | LLM sigma proxy + Brier closing-loop daily learn | 158 | e6a7b272c |
| **Total** | **9 sub + 5 hotfix** | **~1450 LOC** | 14 commits |

**vs r74 base 780 estimate**: +86% 实施 richness (cross-platform + idempotency + retry + hard bounds + outlier handle).

## 3) 60h timeline — T+40min 进度 100% framework / 48h verify 起跑

| 阶段 | 时点 | 实证 |
|------|------|------|
| T+0 (5/13 04:43 UTC) | D-1 ship 起跑 | ✓ |
| T+38min (5/13 05:21 UTC) | 9/9 sub 框架 SHIP | ✓ 远早 ETA 8-12h |
| **T+38min → T+48h (5/15 05:21 UTC)** | **48h sim-only paper trade verify** (Brier 反馈学习 + LLM stability + LAN self-heal 实战 + 安全网 sim 路径全跑) | ⏳ 起跑 |
| T+60h (5/15 16:43 UTC = **5/15 23:43 Bangkok**) | Owner explicit `UPDATE bettor_real_config SET enabled=1` flip → Sophie 真盘自动下单 | 🎯 target |
| sim/real 实证 | Brier 反馈 数据驱动 calibrator 微调 (±5%/week cap) + Sophie real fill audit_trail | post-flip |

**Target 5/15 22:30 Bangkok ✓ on track** (48h verify 起 5/13 12:21 Bangkok, end 5/15 12:21 Bangkok, Owner 22:30 flip 余 10h buffer).

## 4) 安全网 9 层 (B-1 + 6.5 + E-1)

| 层 | 字段 / 实施 |
|----|-----------|
| 1 enabled flag | bettor_real_config.enabled=0 default OFF |
| 2 kill_switch | bettor_real_config.kill_switch_enabled=0 |
| 3 size cap | max_real_size_usd=$50 default |
| 4 daily cap | daily_cap_usd=$300 + reset cron |
| 5 weekly cap | weekly_cap_usd=$1500 + Monday reset |
| 6 per-market | max_real_size_per_market_usd=$150 |
| 7 E-1 sigma stability | sigma > 0.20 SKIP / > 0.10 size×0.5 |
| 8 idempotency | bettor_real_positions pre-INSERT 'pending' |
| 9 retry 3x backoff | Sophie SDK cross-host 500/2000/5000ms |

**Sophie 真盘 ready (post Owner flip)** — token_id chain + side 全修, gate + retry + idempotency 全到位.

## 5) self-heal + 监控 闭环

| 维度 | 实施 |
|------|------|
| D LAN IP 二次漂移 | 0 人工自愈 (实证 5/12 + 5/13 二次漂移人工 6 步) |
| C silent fail 13h | 5 watch key + CRITICAL [...]

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